A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
