Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
